5845 E Bridge Ln NE · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 1978 1.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovingly Maintained Ranch Home On 1.27 Acres (150X370). Home Features 2 Spacious Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Lr And Eik, Laundry Area On Main Floor, Hardwood Floors Throughout. Expansive Backyard - Room For A Pool, Tennis, Horses., Additional information: Appearance:Above Avg,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

Key facts

• 1.27 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $957k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $765k (40.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $765k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mattituck-Cutchogue Elementary School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 453 students, 37% FRL); Mattituck Junior-Senior High School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade B+, #670 of 1,100 statewide, top 61%, 548 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $138k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $130k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$223k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.22M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $105k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $1.29M implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $764,891 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $583,001
• Equity at exit: $1,166,639

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $1,811,635
• Equity at exit: $2,515,900

Cash invested: $362,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,491/yr
• Insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,606
• Net cashflow: $-1,912

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,070

Max offer price $957,188

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,179	-5% $-1,546	+0% $-1,912	+5% $-2,279	+10% $-2,645
Rent	-10% $-2,517	-5% $-2,214	+0% $-1,912	+5% $-1,610	+10% $-1,308
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,260	-0.5pp $-1,583	base $-1,912	+0.5pp $-2,248	+1.0pp $-2,589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $323,750
• Closing costs: $38,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,900	$2.17	45d	1	1.17mi
1100 Huntington Blvd Peconic, NY	3.0	3.0	1600	$12,000	$7.50	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $1,295,000
3. 2026-02-07
   listed $1,400,000 Active
4. 2026-02-06
   historical $1,400,000
5. 2013-06-14
   soldstatus $330,000
6. 2013-06-04
   soldstatus $330,000 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   Lovingly Maintained Ranch Home On 1.27 Acres (150X370). Home Features 2 Spacious Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Lr And Eik, Laundry Area On Main Floor, Hardwood Floors Throughout. Expansive Backyard - Room For A Pool, Tennis, Horses., Additional information: Appearance:Above Avg,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

7. 2013-04-16
   listed $350,000 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   Lovingly Maintained Ranch Home On 1.27 Acres (150X370). Home Features 2 Spacious Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Lr And Eik, Laundry Area On Main Floor, Hardwood Floors Throughout. Expansive Backyard - Room For A Pool, Tennis, Horses., Additional information: Appearance:Above Avg,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,491 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,688 · $1,224/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,197/yr (+$600/mo · 96.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,787
• − Mortgage interest: −$72,540
• − Property taxes: −$7,491
• − Insurance: −$6,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,343
• − Management: −$7,343
• − Depreciation: −$37,673
• Taxable loss: −$47,077
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+270.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $1,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Listed $1,400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $1,400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-04 Sold (MLS) $330,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-16 Listed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,491 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.