165 W Turner St

Allentown, PA 18102

$169,000B-

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $494/mo
• Annual: $5,923/yr
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#171 in PA, #1,440 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D.
• Allentown City SD (urban): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #513 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $169k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.3% in Allentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,048/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 4313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.