1106 Thistle Trl

Cedar Park, TX 78613

$369,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,551 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,441/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$1,073
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$723
• Net cashflow: $-290/mo
• Annual: $-3,476/yr
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $344k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $318k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Leander ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #100 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ada Mae Faubion El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 402 students, 39% FRL); Artie L Henry Middle (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C+, #293 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 1,254 students, 23% FRL); Vista Ridge H S (math 57% / reading 56%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,646 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.0% in Cedar Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($125k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.