628 Marshall Rd

Valley Park, MO 63088

$130,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $1,462/mo
• Annual: $17,545/yr
• Cap rate: 19.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.20%
• DSCR: 3.14
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $731/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#118 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Park (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #130 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Park Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 401 students, 31% FRL); Valley Park Sr. High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 245 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.9% in Valley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.