628 Marshall Rd · Valley Park, MO 63088

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1910 6,499 sqft lot $61/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Valley Park School District. 2 Family Duplex centrally located! Both sides are occupied and tenants have been there 15+ years. 1 Year old roof. Nice yard. Call Elizabeth Ulrich for more details 314-541-8791.

Key facts

• 1 year old roof
• Nice yard
• 6,499 sq ft lot

Tags

• VALLEY PARK SCHOOL DISTRICT
• 1 YEAR OLD ROOF
• NICE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Electric service: Ameren; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential income property (2–4 units); Two-story house; One building containing the units; Two units in community
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: No main or upper level bedrooms listed
• Bathrooms: No main or upper level bathrooms listed
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling with wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2-bath units multifamily listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $731/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.9% in Valley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#118 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Park (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #130 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Park Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 401 students, 31% FRL); Valley Park Sr. High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 245 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.20%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,649
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -53.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
612 Marshall Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-13%)	23mo	$150,000	$81	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $72,143
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $183,087
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63088

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,766/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $1,462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 47%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,074
Total (2 units)			$3,074

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    status $130,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $130,000 Active 207-char remark
13. 2026-03-16
    price $159,000
14. 2026-02-02
    listed $167,500 Active
15. 1994-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,766 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,766 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,766
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,951
• − Management: −$2,951
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $16,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,962
• After-tax cash flow: $13,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Park
• NCES district ID: 2930690
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,665
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5045
• State rank: #130 of 324 in MO

Livability — Valley Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #7284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Park, MO
• City population: 8,423
• Population (ZIP): 8,423

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.80%
• Current HPI: 228.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-22.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $130,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $159,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $167,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,766 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.