5673 Baffin Ln

Belton, TX 76513

$245,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Pending · 203 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-264/mo
• Annual: $-3,171/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.62%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Trail El (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,954 of 4,322 statewide, top 69%, 868 students, 61% FRL); South Belton Middle (math 21% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 677 students, 65% FRL); Belton H S (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 1,941 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 750 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Exterior paint — Some discoloration on brick siding
• Minor: Landscaping — Some cacti, no visible landscaping issues