3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,125 sqft ·
Built 1942
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$979/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$831
Tax + insurance
−$264
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$206
Net cashflow
$-322/mo
Annual
$-3,862/yr
Cap rate
3.86%
Cash-on-cash
-8.70%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.62%
Cash to close
$44,380
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (29.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (38.2% below list).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#186 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Russell County (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #144 of 169 in KS (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Bickerdyke Elem (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #386 of 684 statewide, top 56%, 228 students, 55% FRL); Ruppenthal Middle (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #180 of 219 statewide, top 83%, 186 students, 59% FRL); Russell High (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #249 of 327 statewide, top 79%, 207 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Russell County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $52k; list at $158k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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