200 Ellis St

Metter, GA 30439

$129,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,523/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $259/mo
• Annual: $3,110/yr
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#208 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Candler County (rural): math 30% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #106 of 174 in GA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Candler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Candler County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Metter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.