200 Ellis St · Metter, GA 30439

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1975 0.31 ac lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

$2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

Key facts

• Multiple plum trees
• 1 year on the roof
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MULTIPLE PLUM TREES
• CONCRETE SLAB FOUNDATION
• 1 YEAR ON THE ROOF
• 2 YEARS ON THE SPLIT UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.2% in Metter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#208 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Candler County (rural): math 30% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #106 of 174 in GA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Candler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Candler County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,484
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -1.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Hickory St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,075 (0%)	6mo	$125,000	$116	63
914 Shamrock Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+13%)	15mo	$75,000	$62	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $43,668
• Equity at exit: $70,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $119,161
• Equity at exit: $119,092

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30439

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $129,000 Under Contract 78 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   price $129,000 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   $2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

4. 2026-04-14
   status Price Change 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   $2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

5. 2026-04-14
   price $137,000 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   $2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

6. 2026-02-14
   status Under Contract 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   $2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

7. 2025-12-28
   listed $145,000 New 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   $2500 SELLER CONTRIBUTIONS. Welcome to Metter GA! A beautiful corner lot that's minutes from downtown awaits you. This 3 Bedroom 1 Bath sits on 0.31 acres and has multiple plum trees for your enjoyment. A concrete slab foundation home will be leaving furniture, appliances, etc behind for you. 1 year on the roof and 2 years on the split unit. Everything's Better in Metter! There's No Place Like Home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$10/mo · 11.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$2,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,163
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$279
• After-tax cash flow: $2,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Candler County
• NCES district ID: 1300810
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,775
• Composite: 23.43/100
• National rank: #7887
• State rank: #106 of 174 in GA

Livability — Metter

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #12658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Metter, GA
• City population: 10,583
• Population (ZIP): 10,583

Population outlook (Candler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,702 people
• By 2030: 10,444 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 9,768 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 8,923 · -16.6%
• By 2075: 6,603 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 4,429 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Candler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.5) · D 26.2% · R 73.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.9pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -47.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.5 2020: R+42.1 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.64%
• Current HPI: 271.7303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $129,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $137,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $145,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,061 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.