51556 Sunset St

Nikiski, AK 99635

$369,750D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,996 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,241/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $103,530

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (16.2% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikiski North Star Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 242 students, 52% FRL); Nikiski Middle/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 326 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.