51556 Sunset St · Nikiski, AK 99635

$369,750

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1986 0.95 ac lot $185/sqft · 5% above area Est $351k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This unique homes offers much! Nestled on a beautifully treed lot, this three bedroom home feels so private and surrounded by nature. The main living area has wood details throughout, large windows and a wonderful kitchen. Sellers have done many upgrades that include a new roof, deck, bathroom renovations and flooring.

Key facts

• 0.95 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Built in 1986; Wood frame (2x6) construction
• Construction: Wood frame (2x6); Asphalt roof; Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covenant/restrictions; Located in a fire service area; Parkside location; Asphalt roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 three-quarter, 1 half)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Bedroom and bathroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nikiski North Star Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #104 of 156 statewide, top 70%, 242 students, 52% FRL); Nikiski Middle/Senior High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #39 of 61 statewide, top 65%, 326 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $310,000 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,640
• List price: $369,750
• Delta: 5.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $56,304
• Equity at exit: $166,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $183,639
• Equity at exit: $256,220

Cash invested: $103,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99635

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,939
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,030/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,864

Max offer price $369,750

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $291	+0% $187	+5% $82	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $64	+0% $187	+5% $309	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $281	base $187	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,438
• Closing costs: $11,092
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50683 Dossow St Nikiski, AK	3.0	2.0	2360	$3,100	$1.31	44d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $369,750 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,750 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $369,750 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $377,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $377,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $377,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $377,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $377,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $377,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $377,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $377,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $377,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $377,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $377,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $377,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $377,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $377,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $391,000 398-char remark
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $400,000 Active 398-char remark
20. 2013-07-17
    soldstatus
21. 2012-06-21
    listed $179,900
22. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus
23. 2007-07-05
    listed $155,000
24. 2002-02-20
    listed $128,900
25. 2001-03-05
    listed $129,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,215 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,185/yr (+$99/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,712
• − Property taxes: −$2,030
• − Insurance: −$1,849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$10,756
• Taxable loss: −$4,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$984
• After-tax cash flow: $3,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 106

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+185.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $369,750 AKMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $377,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $391,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $400,000 AKMLS
• 2013-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-21 Listed $179,900 AKMLS
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-05 Listed $155,000 AKMLS
• 2002-02-20 Listed $128,900 AKMLS
• 2001-03-05 Listed $129,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,030 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.