817 Ketch Ct

Kure Beach, NC 28449

$950,000B+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,784 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,834/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax + insurance: −$709
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,375
• Net cashflow: $10,728/mo
• Annual: $128,734/yr
• Cap rate: 19.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.40%
• DSCR: 3.15
• 1% rule: 2.19%
• Cash to close: $266,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $950k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($922k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $922k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#303 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Beach Elementary (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 431 students, 32% FRL); Charles P Murray Middle (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #54 of 475 statewide, top 12%, 882 students, 34% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $419k; list at $950k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 2.1% in Kure Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.