817 Ketch Ct · Kure Beach, NC 28449

$950,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2004 5,481 sqft lot Est $1133k · 16% under $40/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home on a quiet cul-de-sac in Kure Beach Village. 4 bedrooms, plus a library/study, 3 & 1/2 baths with tile floors. Stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, granite counter tops, crown molding throughout, gas log fireplace and custom plantation shutters. Community features include 2 pools, tennis courts and private beach access with gazebo and parking for your bike, car or golf cart. This home has everything you will need for your home at the beach, even the furniture.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• DEDICATED LIBRARY
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• UPDATED APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $950k).
• Recommended offer: $922k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 2.1% in Kure Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#303 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carolina Beach Elementary (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 431 students, 32% FRL); Charles P Murray Middle (math 59% / reading 59%, grade B, #54 of 475 statewide, top 12%, 882 students, 34% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $266k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($922k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $419k; list at $950k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $921,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.40%
• DSCR: 3.15
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,133,088
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1725 Spot Ln	0.17mi	4/3.5	2,603 (-6%)	3mo	$928,750	$357	79
249 Seawatch Way	0.29mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,913 (+5%)	3mo	$1,325,000	$455	69
1615 Bonito Ln	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-10%)	2mo	$990,000	$395	65
114 Heather Ln	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,005 (+8%)	4mo	$1,160,000	$386	64
130 Heather Ln	0.25mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,052 (+10%)	1mo	$1,293,300	$424	63
1613 Bowfin Ln	0.40mi	4/5.0	2,973 (+7%)	2mo	$1,195,000	$402	62
1315 Croaker Ln	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,691 (-3%)	8mo	$1,050,000	$390	58
1514 Mackerel Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,490 (-11%)	4mo	$1,000,000	$402	58
1503 Snapper Ln	0.51mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,974 (+7%)	3mo	$1,520,000	$511	58
465 Fort Fisher Blvd N	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,600 (-7%)	2mo	$1,057,777	$407	57
303 North Carolina Ave	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,590 (-7%)	4mo	$1,295,000	$500	52
1320 Searay Ln	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,478 (-11%)	6mo	$1,360,000	$549	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $529,120
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.04×
• Total profit: $1,339,749
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28449

• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,760/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,375
• Net cashflow: $10,728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,254

Max offer price $950,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11,266	-5% $10,997	+0% $10,728	+5% $10,459	+10% $10,190
Rent	-10% $9,082	-5% $9,905	+0% $10,728	+5% $11,551	+10% $12,374
Rate	-1.0pp $11,206	-0.5pp $10,969	base $10,728	+0.5pp $10,482	+1.0pp $10,231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1622 Swordfish Ln #1 Carolina Beach, NC	4.0	3.5	2476	$24,000	$9.69	22d	1	0.30mi
613 Clarendon Ave Carolina Beach, NC	5.0	3.5	3630	$4,500	$1.24	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $950,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $950,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $950,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $950,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $950,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $950,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $950,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $950,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $950,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $950,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $950,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $950,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $950,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $950,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $950,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $950,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $950,000 Active
18. 2012-04-26
    soldstatus $419,000
19. 2012-04-25
    soldstatus $419,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful home on a quiet cul-de-sac in Kure Beach Village. 4 bedrooms, plus a library/study, 3 & 1/2 baths with tile floors. Stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, granite counter tops, crown molding throughout, gas log fireplace and custom plantation shutters. Community features include 2 pools, tennis courts and private beach access with gazebo and parking for your bike, car or golf cart. This home has everything you will need for your home at the beach, even the furniture.

20. 2009-01-14
    listed $450,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Beautiful home on a quiet cul-de-sac in Kure Beach Village. 4 bedrooms, plus a library/study, 3 & 1/2 baths with tile floors. Stainless steel appliances, hardwood floors, granite counter tops, crown molding throughout, gas log fireplace and custom plantation shutters. Community features include 2 pools, tennis courts and private beach access with gazebo and parking for your bike, car or golf cart. This home has everything you will need for your home at the beach, even the furniture.

21. 2008-12-03
    historical
22. 2007-07-02
    listed $599,000
23. 2007-06-30
    historical
24. 2007-04-03
    historical
25. 2007-01-17
    historical
26. 2007-01-12
    listed $679,000
27. 2006-04-05
    listed $699,500
28. 2006-04-05
    listed $699,500
29. 2004-09-16
    soldstatus $474,000
30. 2004-09-01
    soldstatus $464,000
31. 2004-05-25
    listed $474,000
32. 2003-12-19
    soldstatus $83,000
33. 2003-12-16
    listed $85,000
34. 2003-11-24
    historical
35. 2003-09-04
    listed $325,000
36. 2002-06-30
    historical
37. 2002-01-15
    listed $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,760 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,790 · $649/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,030/yr (+$336/mo · 107.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $250,008
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$3,760
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,001
• − Management: −$20,001
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable income: $120,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28,840
• After-tax cash flow: $99,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hanover County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703330
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 43.13/100
• National rank: #3081
• State rank: #61 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kure Beach

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #12563

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kure Beach, NC
• Population (ZIP): 2,017

Population outlook (New Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,517 people
• By 2030: 279,586 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 318,223 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 354,831 · +36.7%
• By 2075: 437,158 · +68.5%
• By 2100: 486,769 · +87.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New Hanover

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.1 2016: R+4.1 2012: R+4.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.31%
• Current HPI: 246.571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+322.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $950,000 Hive MLS
• 2012-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $419,000 Public Records
• 2012-04-25 Sold (MLS) $419,000 Hive MLS
• 2009-01-14 Listed $450,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-12-03 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2007-07-02 Listed $599,000 Hive MLS
• 2007-06-30 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2007-04-03 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2007-01-17 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2007-01-12 Listed $679,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-04-05 Listed $699,500 Hive MLS
• 2006-04-05 Listed $699,500 Hive MLS
• 2004-09-16 Sold (MLS) $474,000 Hive MLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $464,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-25 Listed $474,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-12-19 Sold (MLS) $83,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-12-16 Listed $85,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-11-24 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2003-09-04 Listed $325,000 Hive MLS
• 2002-06-30 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2002-01-15 Listed $225,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,760 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.