55 Newcomb Trl

Ridge, NY 11961

$480,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 197 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,813/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$887
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,271
• Net cashflow: $5,138/mo
• Annual: $61,655/yr
• Cap rate: 19.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.87%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.25%
• Cash to close: $134,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $480k).
• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $422k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 109% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $480k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.