55 Newcomb Trl · Ridge, NY 11961

$480,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1991 0.33 ac lot $570/sqft · at area comps Est $487k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW $$$ REFLECTS NEW SIDING ON 5/14/20, NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL, NEW BASEMENT WINDOWS, NEW FRONT PORCH, Opportunity Knocks in This Lake Front Community. Bordering County Park Land, This 2 Bedroom Ranch Is Calling For Your Personal Touches. Nestled On Wooded Lot This Ranch Offers More Then Meets The Eye. Updated Gas Furnace, Anderson Windows, Part Basement With Inside Entrance. Large Deck Overlooking County Park lands W/Abundance of Wildlife For Your Viewing. Enjoy Some Of N.Y.s Best Fresh Water Fishing on Your Own Private Lake And Beach. SELLER WILL RENOVATE ENTIRE HOUSE FOR $280K, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1991
• Listed 196 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Dehumidifier included

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Propane available; Water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Advanced framing technique; Batts insulation; Unfinished basement; Attic storage
• Exterior features: Mailbox; Backyard with fencing; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Wall/window air conditioning units; Gas water heater
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Galley-style kitchen; High-speed internet available; His and hers closets; Kitchen island; Marble countertops; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Washer/dryer hookup; Bay windows; Skylights
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Washer/dryer located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $480k).
• Recommended offer: $422k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 109% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $480k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.87%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,551
• List price: $480,000
• Delta: -1.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Wauwepex Trl	0.22mi	2/1.5	792 (-6%)	4mo	$419,103	$529	74
128 Lakeside Trl	0.46mi	2/1.0	876 (+4%)	6mo	$465,000	$531	67
12 Corchaug Trl	0.33mi	2/1.0	816 (-3%)	20mo	$415,000	$509	63
9 Forest Trl	0.48mi	2/1.5	967 (+15%)	15mo	$470,000	$486	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $249,674
• Equity at exit: $71,570

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $639,663
• Equity at exit: $41,502

Cash invested: $134,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11961

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$687 /mo · $8,246/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,271
• Net cashflow: $5,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,309

Max offer price $480,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,000
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 Lakeside Trl Unit 1429738P Ridge, NY	3.0	2.5	861	$10,813	$12.56	44d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $480,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $480,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $480,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $480,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $480,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $480,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $480,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    price $485,000
16. 2026-02-04
    status Active
17. 2025-11-04
    status Active
18. 2025-11-04
    price $499,999
19. 2020-08-24
    soldstatus $230,000
20. 2020-08-10
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    NEW $$$ REFLECTS NEW SIDING ON 5/14/20, NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL, NEW BASEMENT WINDOWS, NEW FRONT PORCH, Opportunity Knocks in This Lake Front Community. Bordering County Park Land, This 2 Bedroom Ranch Is Calling For Your Personal Touches. Nestled On Wooded Lot This Ranch Offers More Then Meets The Eye. Updated Gas Furnace, Anderson Windows, Part Basement With Inside Entrance. Large Deck Overlooking County Park lands W/Abundance of Wildlife For Your Viewing. Enjoy Some Of N.Y.s Best Fresh Water Fishing on Your Own Private Lake And Beach. SELLER WILL RENOVATE ENTIRE HOUSE FOR $280K, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

21. 2020-06-03
    status Pending 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    NEW $$$ REFLECTS NEW SIDING ON 5/14/20, NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL, NEW BASEMENT WINDOWS, NEW FRONT PORCH, Opportunity Knocks in This Lake Front Community. Bordering County Park Land, This 2 Bedroom Ranch Is Calling For Your Personal Touches. Nestled On Wooded Lot This Ranch Offers More Then Meets The Eye. Updated Gas Furnace, Anderson Windows, Part Basement With Inside Entrance. Large Deck Overlooking County Park lands W/Abundance of Wildlife For Your Viewing. Enjoy Some Of N.Y.s Best Fresh Water Fishing on Your Own Private Lake And Beach. SELLER WILL RENOVATE ENTIRE HOUSE FOR $280K, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

22. 2020-05-15
    price $249,900 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    NEW $$$ REFLECTS NEW SIDING ON 5/14/20, NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL, NEW BASEMENT WINDOWS, NEW FRONT PORCH, Opportunity Knocks in This Lake Front Community. Bordering County Park Land, This 2 Bedroom Ranch Is Calling For Your Personal Touches. Nestled On Wooded Lot This Ranch Offers More Then Meets The Eye. Updated Gas Furnace, Anderson Windows, Part Basement With Inside Entrance. Large Deck Overlooking County Park lands W/Abundance of Wildlife For Your Viewing. Enjoy Some Of N.Y.s Best Fresh Water Fishing on Your Own Private Lake And Beach. SELLER WILL RENOVATE ENTIRE HOUSE FOR $280K, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

23. 2020-04-20
    listed $229,990 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    NEW $$$ REFLECTS NEW SIDING ON 5/14/20, NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL, NEW BASEMENT WINDOWS, NEW FRONT PORCH, Opportunity Knocks in This Lake Front Community. Bordering County Park Land, This 2 Bedroom Ranch Is Calling For Your Personal Touches. Nestled On Wooded Lot This Ranch Offers More Then Meets The Eye. Updated Gas Furnace, Anderson Windows, Part Basement With Inside Entrance. Large Deck Overlooking County Park lands W/Abundance of Wildlife For Your Viewing. Enjoy Some Of N.Y.s Best Fresh Water Fishing on Your Own Private Lake And Beach. SELLER WILL RENOVATE ENTIRE HOUSE FOR $280K, Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

24. 1995-04-06
    historical
25. 1994-04-27
    listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,246 · $687/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,246 · $687/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $129,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$8,246
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,380
• − Management: −$10,380
• − Depreciation: −$13,964
• Taxable income: $57,498
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,800
• After-tax cash flow: $47,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #18125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge, NY
• City population: 12,436
• Population (ZIP): 12,436

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.86%
• Current HPI: 383.4444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+380.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $480,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $485,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $499,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-10 Sold (MLS) $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-15 Price Changed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-20 Listed $229,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-27 Listed $100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,246 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.