186 Oxbow St

Prescott, AZ 86305

$65,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $738/mo
• Annual: $8,857/yr
• Cap rate: 21.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.05%
• DSCR: 3.36
• 1% rule: 2.44%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#22 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, schools A-; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 707 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 2.4% in Prescott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.