14530 Byron Hwy #14

Byron, CA 94514

$160,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $-212/mo
• Annual: $-2,541/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (29.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,139 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Discovery Bay Elementary (407 students, 35% FRL); Excelsior Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 428 students, 30% FRL); Liberty High (2,786 students, 23% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Liberty Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.