14530 Byron Hwy #14 · Byron, CA 94514

$160,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition Est $158k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 58 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $1,000
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Located in Camino Mobile Home Park

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Manufacturer: Home; Make: K/N
• Construction: Skirt: Unknown
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Gas cook top; Free standing refrigerator; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Disposal; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($664/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,139 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Liberty Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #320 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Discovery Bay Elementary (407 students, 35% FRL); Excelsior Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 428 students, 30% FRL); Liberty High (2,786 students, 23% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-28 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Liberty Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,968 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,680
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14530 Byron Hwy #44	0.00mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	21mo	$175,500	$219	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $11,559
• Equity at exit: $59,963

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $51,088
• Equity at exit: $83,993

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94514

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,470 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $111	+0% $55	+5% $0	+10% $-55
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-3	+0% $55	+5% $113	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $96	base $55	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $160,000 Active
18. 2026-04-02
    historical
19. 2025-11-21
    price
20. 2025-10-06
    price
21. 2025-08-26
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$481
• After-tax cash flow: $1,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern updates, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Union High
• NCES district ID: 0621600
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $87,001
• Composite: 50.24/100
• National rank: #4065
• State rank: #320 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Byron

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1139
• US rank: #25729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Byron, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,044

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Current HPI: 157.8151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $160,000 BAREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-26 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR