3537 Kempton Way

Oakland, CA 94611

$765,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,992 sqft · Built 1902 · MultiFamily · Active · 478 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,389/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax + insurance: −$643
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,342
• Net cashflow: $393/mo
• Annual: $4,715/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $214,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $765k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $639k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 478 days — a 12% lower offer ($673k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $639k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $765k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($181k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 478 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.