3537 Kempton Way · Oakland, CA 94611

$765,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,992 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 478 Days on market

Built 1902 3,800 sqft lot $256/sqft · 44% below area Est $1355k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Attached basement
• Piedmont avenue

Tags

• VIEWS OF THE OAKLAND HILLS
• LARGE MANTLE FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED BASEMENT
• QUIET STREET
• CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION
• PIEDMONT AVENUE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $765k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $641k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $641k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Oakland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#224 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Oakland Unified (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,007 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($181k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 478 days — a 12% lower offer ($673k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $765k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $640,700 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 478 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.28%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,355,273
• List price: $765,000
• Delta: -43.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
464-470 Weldon Ave	0.71mi	4/—	3,002 (+0%)	12mo	$930,000	$310	56
254 Perkins St	0.49mi	3/4.0 (-1)	3,347 (+12%)	5mo	$850,000	$254	44
3931 Clarke St	0.63mi	4/4.0	2,763 (-8%)	23mo	$860,000	$311	34
4193 Shafter Ave	0.66mi	4/4.0	2,620 (-12%)	15mo	$1,155,000	$441	32
743 Jean St	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,667 (-11%)	22mo	$1,160,000	$435	31
465 Elwood Ave	0.72mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,824 (-6%)	22mo	$1,355,000	$480	30
353 Bellevue Ave	0.66mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,652 (-11%)	16mo	$975,000	$368	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-92,209
• Equity at exit: $114,064

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-22,508
• Equity at exit: $66,143

Cash invested: $214,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Oakland: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+62

Rent Adjustment Program + Just Cause.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94611

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 19.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,012
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,887/yr
• Insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,345
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,892

Max offer price $765,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $840	-5% $624	+0% $407	+5% $191	+10% $-26
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $154	+0% $407	+5% $660	+10% $913
Rate	-1.0pp $792	-0.5pp $602	base $407	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $7

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$6,408
Total (2 units)			$6,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $191,250
• Closing costs: $22,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
814 30th St Emeryville, CA	4.0	2.0	2015	$7,000	$3.47	3d	1	0.99mi
621 Calmar Ave Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	2024	$5,529	$2.73	44d	1	1.19mi
5263 Locksley Ave Oakland, CA	3.0	2.0	2165	$5,500	$2.54	6d	1	1.21mi
16 Craig Ave Piedmont, CA	3.0	3.5	3500	$12,000	$3.43	2d	1	1.35mi
1123 30th St Emeryville, CA	3.0	2.0	2083	$4,895	$2.35	44d	1	1.38mi
1123 30th St Unit 1 Oakland, CA	3.0	2.5	2083	$4,895	$2.35	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $765,000 Active 478 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $765,000 Active 475 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $765,000 Active 474 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $765,000 Active 473 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $765,000 Active 472 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $765,000 Active 470 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $765,000 Active 469 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $765,000 Active 466 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $765,000 Active 465 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $765,000 Active 464 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $765,000 Active 461 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $765,000 Active 460 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $765,000 Active 459 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $765,000 Active 458 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $765,000 Active 457 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $765,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

17. 2025-09-02
    status Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

18. 2025-09-01
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

19. 2025-06-27
    price $795,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

20. 2025-02-27
    listed $895,000 Active 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    The upstairs unit has Old World charm, hardwood floors throughout, and views of the Oakland Hills. The downstairs unit has hardwood floors, a large mantle fireplace, an attached basement, and a garage. Located on a quiet street close to transportation and Piedmont Avenue, with a WalkScore of 81 based on its proximity to a large selection of cafes, restaurants, shops, Kaiser, and other businesses.

21. 1994-10-31
    soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,887 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,814 · $484/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,927/yr (+$161/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,852
• − Property taxes: −$3,887
• − Insurance: −$3,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,151
• − Management: −$6,151
• − Depreciation: −$22,255
• Taxable loss: −$8,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $6,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0628050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,194
• Composite: 29.52/100
• National rank: #11769
• State rank: #1007 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7245

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 385,993
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,116
• Household income: $180,549
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Asian 17% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -911.78%
• Current HPI: 247.5452
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $765,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $795,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-02-27 Listed $895,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1994-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,887 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.