16501 4th Avenue Ct E #95

Spanaway, WA 98387

$135,200B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,832/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$709
• Tax + insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $1,445/mo
• Annual: $17,335/yr
• Cap rate: 19.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.79%
• DSCR: 3.04
• 1% rule: 2.09%
• Cash to close: $37,856

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $935 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in WA, #4,891 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, crime D-.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary (539 students, 64% FRL); Spanaway Lake High School (1,817 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 36% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.5% in Spanaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.