16501 4th Avenue Ct E #95 · Spanaway, WA 98387

$135,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · Manufactured public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $186k · 27% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER!! Located in Spanaway's Desirable Family-Friendly Winchester Village - Welcome to this 3BD 2BA, 1407 sqft move in ready home - Inviting with vaulted ceilings and laminate flooring throughout the main living area - If you like to cook, it has the perfect kitchen with lots of cabinets and open counter space - Primary on-suite has double sinks, a garden tub and 2 walk-in closets - 3rd bedroom is perfect for a home office - Large corner lot with a fully fenced backyard - perfect for gardening and pets - Covered back deck for outdoor living - Plenty of parking with large driveway and 2-car carport - plus a spacious storage shed - Close to shopping, dining, and Spanaway Lake -

Key facts

• Double sinks
• Laminate flooring
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• DOUBLE SINKS
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Mobile home remains; Style code: Manufactured double wide; Calculated living area: 1,407; Tie down foundation; Direction faces west; Energy efficient features: Double pane windows
• Financial info: Land lease amount: $975; Listing terms: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Winchester Village park (park approved for sale); Clubhouse; Common area; Playground; High-speed internet available; 143 homes in park; Senior exemption available; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Electric water heater; Community water; Septic sewer; Power: Elmhurst; Cable: Comcast; Internet: Comcast
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces west; Good condition; Model: Country Estates; Make: Golden West
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Metal skirting; Tie-down foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved; Wood siding/exterior; Wood products; Patio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Drapes; Patio/porch/deck; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 3.5% in Spanaway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in WA, #4,891 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, commute A-; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, crime D-.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen Elementary (539 students, 64% FRL); Spanaway Lake High School (1,817 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 36% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $935 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,976 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.79%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,724
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 166th St E #116	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+0%)	18mo	$185,000	$131	80
706 164th Street Ct E #58	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-8%)	2mo	$170,000	$132	77
602 165th Street Ct E #37	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-8%)	11mo	$167,000	$129	69
605 167th Street Ct E #16	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (-12%)	2mo	$57,500	$46	64
609 166th Street Ct E #32	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+9%)	17mo	$207,700	$135	60
16309 7th Avenue Ct E #62	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+8%)	18mo	$200,000	$132	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $73,631
• Equity at exit: $20,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $197,462
• Equity at exit: $11,690

Cash invested: $37,856 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98387

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$709
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $326/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $1,445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $135,200

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,800
• Closing costs: $4,056
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17121 B St E Spanaway, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	24d	1	0.53mi
15326 4th Avenue Ct E Tacoma, WA	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,750	$1.49	1d	1	0.66mi
1009 153rd St Ct E Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	14d	1	0.79mi
17211 13th Ave E Spanaway, WA	4.0	1.0	924	$2,995	$3.24	17d	1	0.85mi
628 175th St S Spanaway, WA	3.0	1.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	4d	1	1.00mi
15909 18th Avenue Ct E Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,050	$1.95	24d	1	1.06mi
14601 1st Ave S Parkland, WA	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,595	$1.74	1d	1	1.15mi
17724 17th Ave E Spanaway, WA	3.0	2.5	1761	$2,550	$1.45	24d	1	1.25mi
619 187th St E Spanaway, WA	3.0	2.0	1430	$2,779	$1.94	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,200 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,200 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $135,200 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,500 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,500 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,500 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,500 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,500 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,500 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,500 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,500 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,500 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,500 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    price $139,500
16. 2026-05-10
    price $144,950
17. 2026-05-05
    price $149,500
18. 2026-03-24
    price $154,500
19. 2026-02-18
    price $159,500
20. 2026-01-05
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $326 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,325 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 306.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,573
• − Property taxes: −$326
• − Insurance: −$676
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,719
• − Management: −$2,719
• − Depreciation: −$3,933
• Taxable income: $16,036
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,849
• After-tax cash flow: $13,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Spanaway

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanaway, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 50,774
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 50,774
• Household income: $106,872
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 10% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.94%
• Current HPI: 308.0462
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $139,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $144,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $149,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $154,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $159,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $326 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.