314 Cherry St

Clayton, NM 88415

$45,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Built 1961 · Other · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $379/mo
• Annual: $4,545/yr
• Cap rate: 16.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.07%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($833 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#71 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton Municipal Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #14 of 95 in NM (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvis Elementary (157 students, 69% FRL); Clayton Junior High (56 students, 79% FRL); Clayton High (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 131 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clayton Municipal Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.
• Union County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.