314 Cherry St · Clayton, NM 88415

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · Other · 52 Days on market

Built 1961 3,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute "Lil Casita" could be finished up for a starter home or rental investment. Original hardwood floors throughout. Living Room, Dining Area, 2 bedrooms, kitchen and bathroom. Owner has completed some upgrades, but will still need TLC. Utilities have not been on at this location for several years, so will most likely need to be upgraded. Located near Elementary and Jr. High Schools. PRICE REDUCED!

Key facts

• Rare opportunity
• One-property lot
• 3,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ONE-PROPERTY LOT
• RARE OPPORTUNITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story / single level
• Construction: Concrete, frame, stucco and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Vegetation in natural state

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Single-family residence (one level)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Electric cooling; Gas cooling; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Wood window frames; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Dryer
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($833 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#71 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Clayton Municipal Schools (rural): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #14 of 95 in NM (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alvis Elementary (157 students, 69% FRL); Clayton Junior High (56 students, 79% FRL); Clayton High (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #98 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 131 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Clayton Municipal Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.07%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $16,826
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $45,688
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88415

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $297/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $354

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $392	+0% $379	+5% $366	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $346	+0% $379	+5% $412	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $390	base $379	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $45,000 Active
16. 2021-12-27
    soldstatus 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Cute "Lil Casita" could be finished up for a starter home or rental investment. Original hardwood floors throughout. Living Room, Dining Area, 2 bedrooms, kitchen and bathroom. Owner has completed some upgrades, but will still need TLC. Utilities have not been on at this location for several years, so will most likely need to be upgraded. Located near Elementary and Jr. High Schools. PRICE REDUCED!

17. 2020-02-01
    listed $35,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Cute "Lil Casita" could be finished up for a starter home or rental investment. Original hardwood floors throughout. Living Room, Dining Area, 2 bedrooms, kitchen and bathroom. Owner has completed some upgrades, but will still need TLC. Utilities have not been on at this location for several years, so will most likely need to be upgraded. Located near Elementary and Jr. High Schools. PRICE REDUCED!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $297 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $360 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$297
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$800
• − Management: −$800
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $4,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$971
• After-tax cash flow: $3,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500510
• Math proficiency: 36% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $37,808
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10400
• State rank: #14 of 95 in NM

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #14705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, NM
• Population (ZIP): 3,143

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,632 people
• By 2030: 3,403 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 3,115 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 2,838 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 2,097 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 1,481 · -59.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.2) · D 22.7% · R 74.9% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -52.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.2 2020: R+56.2 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+43.4 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.42%
• Current HPI: 123.6201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $45,000 NMMLS
• 2021-12-27 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-02-01 Listed $35,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.