Carson Plan

Jeromesville, OH 44840

$197,315D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 956 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$993
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-910/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $53,037

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-910/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (20.9% below list).
• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsdale Local (rural): math 49% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #305 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillsdale Elementary School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #456 of 1,584 statewide, top 31%, 310 students, 33% FRL); Hillsdale Middle School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade B-, #342 of 654 statewide, top 54%, 248 students, 36% FRL); Hillsdale High School (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #275 of 781 statewide, top 37%, 194 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 61 units permitted in Ashland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashland County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Jeromesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.