Carson Plan · Jeromesville, OH 44840

$197,315

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily · 956 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 955 days

🏗️ New construction. The $197,315 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $189,416.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-910/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Jeromesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#663 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsdale Local (rural): math 49% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #305 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillsdale Elementary School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #456 of 1,584 statewide, top 31%, 310 students, 33% FRL); Hillsdale Middle School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade B-, #342 of 654 statewide, top 54%, 248 students, 36% FRL); Hillsdale High School (math 37% / reading 77%, grade C, #275 of 781 statewide, top 37%, 194 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 61 units permitted in Ashland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Ashland County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,100 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,416
• List price: $197,315
• Delta: 4.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $34,051
• Equity at exit: $102,232

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $109,582
• Equity at exit: $172,353

Cash invested: $53,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44840

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,841/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $178,445

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-10	+0% $-76	+5% $-141	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-137	+0% $-76	+5% $-14	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-28	base $-76	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,354
• Closing costs: $5,682
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,315 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $197,315 Active 954 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,315 Active 953 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,315 Active 952 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,315 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,315 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,315 Active 948 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $197,315 Active 947 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,315 Active 944 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $197,315 Active 943 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,315 Active 942 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $197,315 Active 939 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,315 Active 938 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,315 Active 937 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,315 Active 936 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,315 Active 935 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $197,315 Active 934 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    price $197,315 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

19. 2025-12-16
    price $195,000 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

20. 2025-03-26
    price $192,800 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

21. 2025-03-21
    price $189,250 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

22. 2025-03-18
    price $192,800 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

23. 2024-11-02
    price $189,250 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

24. 2024-08-14
    price $186,650 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

25. 2024-02-27
    price $184,750 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

26. 2023-11-08
    listed $183,750 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    TO-BE-BUILT CUSTOM HOMES ON YOUR LAND. HOMES ARE NOT PREBUILT. PRICING REFLECTS THE TO-BE-BUILT HOME ONLY, AND DOES NOT INCLUDE LAND OR LAND IMPROVEMENTS. We can build a custom home on your lot in most counties in Ohio and many counties in Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia. We do not sell land, but please contact us if you are looking to acquire land for a custom home. The Carson has just what you need when you don't need a lot of square footage. And the flexible plan is a blank canvas, ready to customize for how you live. For instance, the third bedroom can be reconfigured to become a den. Move a wall, enlarge a window, add a fireplace … experiment with our interactive floor plan tool to explore some of the possibilities. By the way, the possibility of you loving this home is excellent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,732
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,610
• − Property taxes: −$2,841
• − Insurance: −$947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$5,510
• Taxable loss: −$4,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,002
• After-tax cash flow: $92/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsdale Local
• NCES district ID: 3904582
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,883
• Composite: 50.13/100
• National rank: #1902
• State rank: #305 of 656 in OH

Livability — Jeromesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #11707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ashland · 50,679 people
• Population (ZIP): 3,415
• Household income: $80,664
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1.5

Population outlook (Ashland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,732 people
• By 2030: 51,728 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 48,956 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 46,070 · -12.6%
• By 2075: 38,945 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 30,883 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.5% · R 74.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.3pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+48.7 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.55%
• Current HPI: 250.8591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+7.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $197,315 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $195,000 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $192,800 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $189,250 Zillow
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $192,800 Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $189,250 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $186,650 Zillow
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $184,750 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $183,750 Zillow