2982 Ardmore Ave

Medina, MN 55359

$475,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,019 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,995/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$593
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $72/mo
• Annual: $861/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($861/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (15.9% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $400k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#756 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orono Intermediate Elementary (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 637 students, 8% FRL); Orono Middle (math 59% / reading 70%, grade A-, #14 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 700 students, 12% FRL); Orono Senior High (math 57% / reading 78%, grade B, #18 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 947 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $475k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.0% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.