2982 Ardmore Ave · Medina, MN 55359

$475,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,019 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1955 0.41 ac lot $235/sqft · 21% below area Est $579k · 18% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake Front & Orono Schools!Full of character & charm on a lg. lot & dead end street! Totally remodeled,has lots of built-ins,stone walls & fireplace,beamed and vaulted ceilings,lg. windows over looking lake,master bedroom and hardwood flrs.,see suppl...

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.41 acres; Lot dimensions: 70x20x30x154x120x127; Public maintained paved streets

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces; Additional garage(s), workshop and studio structures
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; On waterfront (lakefront) with approximately 120 feet of shoreline; Road between home and waterfront: no
• Construction: Block and slab foundation; Roof age 8 years or less
• Exterior features: Composite decking; Deck; Patio; Rear porch; Wrap-around porch; Vinyl exterior; Dock; Light tree coverage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen center island; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper/main as noted: primary and two additional bedrooms on upper level; one bedroom listed generally)
• Bathrooms: Main level full bathroom; Upper level 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceiling; Skylight; Water softener (owned); Kitchen/dining room layout; Main floor laundry; Washer/Dryer hookup; Wood-burning fireplace in family room (one fireplace); Has basement (crawl space)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Dryer; Washer/Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($861/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $400k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.0% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#756 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orono Intermediate Elementary (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 637 students, 8% FRL); Orono Middle (math 59% / reading 70%, grade A-, #14 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 700 students, 12% FRL); Orono Senior High (math 57% / reading 78%, grade B, #18 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 947 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; list at $475k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $399,500 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,087
• List price: $475,000
• Delta: -17.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4801 Becker Rd	0.98mi	3/2.5	2,065 (+2%)	17mo	$840,000	$407	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-72,460
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-57,459
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55359

• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$395 /mo · $4,745/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,904

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $206	+0% $72	+5% $-63	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-86	+0% $72	+5% $230	+10% $387
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $193	base $72	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2930 Lindgren Ln Maple Plain, MN	4.0	2.0	2250	$3,995	$1.78	4d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 778-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   historical Contingent - Inspection 778-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   status Active 778-char remark
4. 2026-04-28
   historical Contingent - Inspection 778-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   status Active 778-char remark
6. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent - Inspection 778-char remark
7. 2026-04-26
   listed $475,000 Active 778-char remark
8. 2026-04-23
   historical $475,000 778-char remark
9. 2010-07-13
   soldstatus $250,000
10. 2010-07-08
    soldstatus $250,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Lake Front & Orono Schools!Full of character & charm on a lg. lot & dead end street! Totally remodeled,has lots of built-ins,stone walls & fireplace,beamed and vaulted ceilings,lg. windows over looking lake,master bedroom and hardwood flrs.,see suppl...

11. 2010-05-11
    historical 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Lake Front & Orono Schools!Full of character & charm on a lg. lot & dead end street! Totally remodeled,has lots of built-ins,stone walls & fireplace,beamed and vaulted ceilings,lg. windows over looking lake,master bedroom and hardwood flrs.,see suppl...

12. 2010-03-23
    listed $250,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Lake Front & Orono Schools!Full of character & charm on a lg. lot & dead end street! Totally remodeled,has lots of built-ins,stone walls & fireplace,beamed and vaulted ceilings,lg. windows over looking lake,master bedroom and hardwood flrs.,see suppl...

13. 1999-08-18
    soldstatus $89,900
14. 1999-08-18
    soldstatus $89,900
15. 1999-07-08
    historical
16. 1999-06-18
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,745 · $395/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$4,745
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,835
• − Management: −$3,835
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$7,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,746
• After-tax cash flow: $2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orono Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725080
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $93,850
• Composite: 62.7/100
• National rank: #673
• State rank: #9 of 301 in MN

Livability — Medina

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #756
• US rank: #18606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medina, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,068

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.80%
• Current HPI: 261.8218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+428.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Listed $475,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Coming Soon $475,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-08 Sold (MLS) $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-23 Listed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 1999-08-18 Sold (MLS) $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-07-08 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-18 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,745 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.