Rutgers Plan

Houston, TX 77598

$432,990F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,421 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,735
• Tax + insurance: −$869
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-2,078/mo
• Annual: $-24,940/yr
• Cap rate: 1.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.08%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $146,019

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $433k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (49.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (55.4% below list).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($381k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (55.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C D Landolt El (math 48% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 734 students, 54% FRL); Brookside Int (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 921 students, 47% FRL); Clear Springs H S (math 43% / reading 72%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 2,732 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 319 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 116d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 3.0% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.