1638 Calavo Rd #34

Fallbrook, CA 92028

$325,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,227/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $634/mo
• Annual: $7,611/yr
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.36%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (0.7% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Live Oak Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 644 students, 73% FRL); James E. Potter Intermediate (729 students, 84% FRL); Fallbrook High (math 35% / reading 59%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,924 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.