1638 Calavo Rd #34 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2013 8.36 ac lot Est $327k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully upgraded 3 Bedroom 2 full bathrooms Manufactured home, this home is located in one of Fallbrook’s most desirable and peaceful communities lots of amenities. Enjoy a calm quiet neighborhood while still being close to everything Fallbrook has to offer.

Key facts

• 8.36 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Property located in a land-lease community
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Land lease in park (Sunshine Park Estates) — $860 monthly; Community features include horse trails

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car carport; Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home model: CrownPointe Xtreme; Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 48'; Updated/remodeled condition; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Mobile home remains on lot; Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Shed; Community pool; Lot is level/flat; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (downstairs/entry level)
• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Bay window; Front door entry; All bedrooms on one level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookup with gas dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.36%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,040
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1638 CALAVO #56	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	10mo	$329,900	$317	77
1638 Calavo Rd #74	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+10%)	17mo	$329,900	$268	67
1638 Calavo Rd #10	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-14%)	12mo	$280,000	$292	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-21,880
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-4,213
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $903/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $818	-5% $726	+0% $634	+5% $542	+10% $450
Rent	-10% $379	-5% $507	+0% $634	+5% $762	+10% $889
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $717	base $634	+0.5pp $550	+1.0pp $464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1732 Woodbrook Ln Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,950	$2.16	0d	1	1.01mi
1133 Old Stage Rd Fallbrook, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,400	$2.82	0d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $903 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,567/yr (+$131/mo · 173.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$903
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,098
• − Management: −$3,098
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $2,339
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$561
• After-tax cash flow: $7,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fallbrook, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $325,000 CRMLS