815 S Harrison St

Saginaw, MI 48602

$10,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · Built 1889 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$57
• Tax + insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $845/mo
• Annual: $10,146/yr
• Cap rate: 99.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 332.43%
• DSCR: 15.79
• 1% rule: 10.69%
• Cash to close: $3,052

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $11k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $11k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $11k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $75 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $327 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 99.4% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.