815 S Harrison St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$10,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,571 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1889 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special. This home is actually a duplex with small apartment on 2nd level. Needs lots of clean up but could be brought back to life with a little work. Lower level has 2 beds and full bath and upper level has 1 bedroom and 1 full bath. Good size backyard and located in walking distance of business district.

Key facts

• Good size backyard
• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1889

Tags

• GOOD SIZE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 120 (0.16 acre)

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $11k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $845 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $11k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 99.4% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $75 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $327 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $10,573 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 99.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 332.43%
• DSCR: 15.79
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,837
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 Williams St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,526 (-3%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	88
709 S Granger St	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,633 (+4%)	8mo	$32,500	$20	79
1118 Cass St	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,617 (+3%)	7mo	$46,500	$29	67
407 S Oakley St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,495 (-5%)	4mo	$58,000	$39	67
203 N Webster St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,607 (+2%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	67
1403 Cypress St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (+2%)	2mo	$63,000	$39	65
1112 Brockway Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,472 (-6%)	11mo	$98,500	$67	64
1536 Greenwich St	0.61mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (-2%)	10mo	$100,000	$65	53
1454 Vermont St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-7%)	11mo	$101,000	$69	52
1544 Maine St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,632 (+4%)	8mo	$76,000	$47	50
1712 S Hamilton St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,381 (-12%)	9mo	$89,000	$64	44
1424 Acacia St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,416 (-10%)	3mo	$66,500	$47	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.45×
• Total profit: $53,261
• Equity at exit: $1,625

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.53×
• Total profit: $120,647
• Equity at exit: $942

Cash invested: $3,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$57
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$14 /mo · $164/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $845

Break-even live

Break-even rent $95

Max offer price $10,900

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $849	+0% $845	+5% $842	+10% $838
Rent	-10% $753	-5% $799	+0% $845	+5% $892	+10% $938
Rate	-1.0pp $851	-0.5pp $848	base $845	+0.5pp $843	+1.0pp $840

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,725
• Closing costs: $327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $10,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $10,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $10,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $10,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $10,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $14,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $14,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $14,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $14,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $14,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $14,900 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $14,900 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Investor special. This home is actually a duplex with small apartment on 2nd level. Needs lots of clean up but could be brought back to life with a little work. Lower level has 2 beds and full bath and upper level has 1 bedroom and 1 full bath. Good size backyard and located in walking distance of business district.

19. 2026-05-19
    listed $14,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Investor special. This home is actually a duplex with small apartment on 2nd level. Needs lots of clean up but could be brought back to life with a little work. Lower level has 2 beds and full bath and upper level has 1 bedroom and 1 full bath. Good size backyard and located in walking distance of business district.

20. 2018-09-27
    historical
21. 2018-09-27
    historical
22. 2017-03-31
    listed $19,900 Active
23. 2017-03-31
    listed $19,900 Active
24. 2015-11-21
    historical
25. 2015-11-21
    historical
26. 2015-09-09
    listed $14,100
27. 2015-09-09
    listed $14,100
28. 2004-08-12
    soldstatus $55,000
29. 2004-07-30
    historical
30. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus $55,000
31. 2004-04-01
    listed $57,900
32. 2002-04-18
    soldstatus $35,500
33. 2001-05-10
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$611
• − Property taxes: −$164
• − Insurance: −$54
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$317
• Taxable income: $10,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $7,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-62.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $14,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Listed $14,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-09-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-03-31 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-03-31 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2015-11-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-11-21 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-09-09 Listed $14,100 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $14,100 REALCOMP
• 2004-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-29 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-04-01 Listed $57,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-04-18 Sold (MLS) $35,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-05-10 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,075 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.