19409 Brush Creek Way

Lake Elsinore, CA 92532

$600,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,945 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,164
• HOA: −$114
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $-1,210/mo
• Annual: $-14,516/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $386k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elsinore Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 480 students, 95% FRL); Elsinore Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 907 students, 76% FRL); Temescal Canyon High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 2,176 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.