19409 Brush Creek Way · Lake Elsinore, CA 92532

$600,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 2025 5,162 sqft lot $204/sqft · 9% below area Est $658k · 9% under $114/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this gorgeous 5 bed 3 bathroom home with PAID OFF SOLAR ! Featuring a spacious lot, this brand new home features so much to enjoy. FULL BATH and bedroom down stairs along with flex room. Enjoy water-smart features including weather-sensing irrigation, high-performance toilets, efficient faucets, and Flow-Smart showerheads. The home’s energy efficiency shines with advanced framing, thermal breaks, spray foam insulation, insulated and sealed ducts, conditioned attics, insulated garage doors, and spray-foam insulated attics. You’ll also find Low-E impact windows, LED lighting throughout, and much more. Located minutes from South Corona, this home is perfect for those commuting to the 15 and 91 FWYs.

Key facts

• Water-smart features
• Paid off solar
• Full bath

Tags

• PAID OFF SOLAR
• FULL BATH
• FLEX ROOM
• WATER-SMART FEATURES
• WEATHER-SENSING IRRIGATION
• HIGH-PERFORMANCE TOILETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elsinore Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 480 students, 95% FRL); Elsinore Middle (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 907 students, 76% FRL); Temescal Canyon High (math 50% / reading 90%, grade B+, #112 of 1,170 statewide, top 10%, 2,176 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 120 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,307 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $657,846
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19529 Hanging Rock Rd	0.07mi	5/3.0	2,948 (+0%)	7mo	$685,000	$232	91
19516 Hanging Rock Rd	0.02mi	5/3.0	2,948 (+0%)	10mo	$675,000	$229	90
19508 Hanging Rock Rd	0.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	4mo	$652,000	$235	81
19532 Hanging Rock Rd	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	5mo	$658,000	$237	78
19425 Brush Creek Way	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	9mo	$659,000	$238	76
19413 Brush Creek Way	0.01mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	11mo	$659,000	$238	76
19513 Hanging Rock Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	10mo	$670,000	$242	74
19540 Hanging Rock Rd	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	9mo	$675,000	$244	74
19501 Hanging Rock Rd	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,771 (-6%)	11mo	$695,000	$251	73
19509 Hanging Rock Rd	0.05mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,541 (-14%)	7mo	$670,000	$264	64
19533 Hanging Rock Rd	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,541 (-14%)	7mo	$645,000	$254	63
19520 Hanging Rock Rd	0.03mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,541 (-14%)	11mo	$649,000	$255	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.35% appreciation · 0.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $175,576
• Equity at exit: $470,101

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $552,310
• Equity at exit: $947,090

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92532

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$914 /mo · $10,973/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$114
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $-1,210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,601

Max offer price $386,307

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-870	-5% $-1,040	+0% $-1,210	+5% $-1,379	+10% $-1,549
Rent	-10% $-1,531	-5% $-1,370	+0% $-1,210	+5% $-1,049	+10% $-888
Rate	-1.0pp $-908	-0.5pp $-1,057	base $-1,210	+0.5pp $-1,365	+1.0pp $-1,523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4812 Sicily Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	4.0	3.0	2453	$3,200	$1.30	26d	1	1.35mi
16611 McPherson Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	4.0	3.0	2165	$3,100	$1.43	14d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $114 · $1,368/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $600,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $600,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 203 DOM
16. 2025-12-12
    status Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous 5 bed 3 bathroom home with PAID OFF SOLAR ! Featuring a spacious lot, this brand new home features so much to enjoy. FULL BATH and bedroom down stairs along with flex room. Enjoy water-smart features including weather-sensing irrigation, high-performance toilets, efficient faucets, and Flow-Smart showerheads. The home’s energy efficiency shines with advanced framing, thermal breaks, spray foam insulation, insulated and sealed ducts, conditioned attics, insulated garage doors, and spray-foam insulated attics. You’ll also find Low-E impact windows, LED lighting throughout, and much more. Located minutes from South Corona, this home is perfect for those commuting to the 15 and 91 FWYs.

17. 2025-09-29
    price $600,000 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous 5 bed 3 bathroom home with PAID OFF SOLAR ! Featuring a spacious lot, this brand new home features so much to enjoy. FULL BATH and bedroom down stairs along with flex room. Enjoy water-smart features including weather-sensing irrigation, high-performance toilets, efficient faucets, and Flow-Smart showerheads. The home’s energy efficiency shines with advanced framing, thermal breaks, spray foam insulation, insulated and sealed ducts, conditioned attics, insulated garage doors, and spray-foam insulated attics. You’ll also find Low-E impact windows, LED lighting throughout, and much more. Located minutes from South Corona, this home is perfect for those commuting to the 15 and 91 FWYs.

18. 2025-09-11
    listed $650,000 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this gorgeous 5 bed 3 bathroom home with PAID OFF SOLAR ! Featuring a spacious lot, this brand new home features so much to enjoy. FULL BATH and bedroom down stairs along with flex room. Enjoy water-smart features including weather-sensing irrigation, high-performance toilets, efficient faucets, and Flow-Smart showerheads. The home’s energy efficiency shines with advanced framing, thermal breaks, spray foam insulation, insulated and sealed ducts, conditioned attics, insulated garage doors, and spray-foam insulated attics. You’ll also find Low-E impact windows, LED lighting throughout, and much more. Located minutes from South Corona, this home is perfect for those commuting to the 15 and 91 FWYs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,973 · $914/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,973 · $914/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$10,973
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,907
• − Management: −$3,907
• − HOA: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$25,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Elsinore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #17250

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elsinore, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 89,823
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,055
• Household income: $122,312
• Rent vs Own: 25.3% rent · 74.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 691.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Asian 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 24% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.35%
• Current HPI: 315.9846
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $600,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $650,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+43.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,973 · +557.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.