19127 Pioneer #73

Artesia, CA 90701

$221,988C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 162 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,007/mo
• Annual: $12,089/yr
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.45%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $62,157

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $222k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $222k).
• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#311 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A, employment B+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Abc Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #24 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Bragg Elementary (math 64% / reading 74%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 631 students, 48% FRL); Haskell (Pliny Fisk) Middle (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #25 of 498 statewide, top 6%, 461 students, 68% FRL); Gahr (Richard) High (1,682 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $222k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.5% in Artesia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.