4711 Pattersonville-rynex Corners Rd

Mariaville Lake, NY 12137

$165,500D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $882/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax + insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-380/mo
• Annual: $-4,558/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.84%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $46,340

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-380 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (40.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (46.7% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (46.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,178 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Schalmont Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #243 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary School (math 53% / reading 61%, 677 students, 27% FRL); Schalmont Middle School (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 561 students, 28% FRL); Schalmont High School (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 572 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.