4711 Pattersonville-rynex Corners Rd · Mariaville Lake, NY 12137

$165,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1976 2.40 ac lot $194/sqft · 12% above area Est $165k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BOM Reclassified as a single Family Ranch. Smart living open floor plan for a serious buyer. Everything has been done for you , New floors, through out ,freshly painted, new Bilco door to a part finished heated basement . New furnace and new Water tank October 2025. Updated Kitchen cabinets and appliances. Right off the kitchen , through the barn door is your third bedroom or office . Natural lighting through out and privacey woods in back. Land sloops down to water . Princtown Assessor , reclassisfied as single family ranch home. 518 357 4046 ( assessors ) Check docs online. Must be pre approved for an accecpted showing.

Key facts

• New floors
• One floor ranch
• New furnace

Tags

• ONE FLOOR RANCH
• NEW FLOORS
• FRESHLY PAINTED WALLS
• NEW BILCO DOOR
• PART FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-172 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,178 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Schalmont Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #243 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary School (math 53% / reading 61%, 677 students, 27% FRL); Schalmont Middle School (math 35% / reading 55%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 561 students, 28% FRL); Schalmont High School (math 92% / reading 98%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 572 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $114,577 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,793
• List price: $165,500
• Delta: 0.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $79,178
• Equity at exit: $149,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $241,717
• Equity at exit: $321,530

Cash invested: $46,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12137

• Home prices YoY: 34.2%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$868
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $135,173

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-125	+0% $-172	+5% $-219	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-217	+0% $-172	+5% $-126	+10% $-81
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-130	base $-172	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,375
• Closing costs: $4,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,500 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,500 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,500 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,500 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,500 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,500 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,500 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,500 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,500 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,500 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,500 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,500 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,500 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,500 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,500 Active 149 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,500 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,500 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    status Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    BOM Reclassified as a single Family Ranch. Smart living open floor plan for a serious buyer. Everything has been done for you , New floors, through out ,freshly painted, new Bilco door to a part finished heated basement . New furnace and new Water tank October 2025. Updated Kitchen cabinets and appliances. Right off the kitchen , through the barn door is your third bedroom or office . Natural lighting through out and privacey woods in back. Land sloops down to water . Princtown Assessor , reclassisfied as single family ranch home. 518 357 4046 ( assessors ) Check docs online. Must be pre approved for an accecpted showing.

19. 2026-04-27
    status Pending 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    BOM Reclassified as a single Family Ranch. Smart living open floor plan for a serious buyer. Everything has been done for you , New floors, through out ,freshly painted, new Bilco door to a part finished heated basement . New furnace and new Water tank October 2025. Updated Kitchen cabinets and appliances. Right off the kitchen , through the barn door is your third bedroom or office . Natural lighting through out and privacey woods in back. Land sloops down to water . Princtown Assessor , reclassisfied as single family ranch home. 518 357 4046 ( assessors ) Check docs online. Must be pre approved for an accecpted showing.

20. 2026-02-05
    price $195,900 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    BOM Reclassified as a single Family Ranch. Smart living open floor plan for a serious buyer. Everything has been done for you , New floors, through out ,freshly painted, new Bilco door to a part finished heated basement . New furnace and new Water tank October 2025. Updated Kitchen cabinets and appliances. Right off the kitchen , through the barn door is your third bedroom or office . Natural lighting through out and privacey woods in back. Land sloops down to water . Princtown Assessor , reclassisfied as single family ranch home. 518 357 4046 ( assessors ) Check docs online. Must be pre approved for an accecpted showing.

21. 2025-12-18
    listed $207,000 Active 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    BOM Reclassified as a single Family Ranch. Smart living open floor plan for a serious buyer. Everything has been done for you , New floors, through out ,freshly painted, new Bilco door to a part finished heated basement . New furnace and new Water tank October 2025. Updated Kitchen cabinets and appliances. Right off the kitchen , through the barn door is your third bedroom or office . Natural lighting through out and privacey woods in back. Land sloops down to water . Princtown Assessor , reclassisfied as single family ranch home. 518 357 4046 ( assessors ) Check docs online. Must be pre approved for an accecpted showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,680 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,238 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 33.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,271
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$828
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$4,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,210
• After-tax cash flow: $-850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schalmont Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625980
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,566
• Composite: 51.11/100
• National rank: #1765
• State rank: #243 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mariaville Lake

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #26007

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,347

Population outlook (Schenectady County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,046 people
• By 2030: 154,322 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 151,796 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 148,621 · -4.1%
• By 2075: 141,229 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 126,014 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovene 5% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schenectady

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 55.4% · R 44.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.7pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+15.7 2016: D+5.8 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 81.96%
• Current HPI: 321.3768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $195,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $207,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,680 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.