1030 Water St

Conneaut Lake, PA 16316

$115,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-998/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-998/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#536 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.