1030 Water St · Conneaut Lake, PA 16316

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 1959 0.27 ac lot $132/sqft · 19% below area Est $143k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME to this charming 1-story, 2 bedrrom-1 bath ranch with a nice sized yard just outside downtown Conneaut Lake. Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The spacious yard provides ample room for a garden and outdoor entertaining. And the back deck offers a great spot to sit and relax. The home features a cozy eat-in kitchen that opens to the comfortable living room. There is also a bonus room that can be used for an office, den or additional storage. This would make a lovely home or investment property.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Back deck
• Cozy eat-in kitchen

Tags

• NICE-SIZED YARD
• BACK DECK
• COZY EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (see broker)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story (single level)
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.27-acre lot (approximate)
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Sloped lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (includes bedroom and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-998/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#536 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,461 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.10%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,638
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -19.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1010 Water St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	850 (-2%)	8mo	$139,900	$165	83
10384 State Highway 285 Hwy	0.36mi	2/1.0	928 (+7%)	9mo	$50,000	$54	65
10306 State Hwy 285	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	972 (+12%)	13mo	$169,800	$175	44
749 Brown Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+10%)	23mo	$128,000	$133	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $57,329
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $172,983
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16316

• Home prices YoY: 21.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,383/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $100,305

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $115,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    WELCOME to this charming 1-story, 2 bedrrom-1 bath ranch with a nice sized yard just outside downtown Conneaut Lake. Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The spacious yard provides ample room for a garden and outdoor entertaining. And the back deck offers a great spot to sit and relax. The home features a cozy eat-in kitchen that opens to the comfortable living room. There is also a bonus room that can be used for an office, den or additional storage. This would make a lovely home or investment property.

18. 2026-05-11
    listed $115,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    WELCOME to this charming 1-story, 2 bedrrom-1 bath ranch with a nice sized yard just outside downtown Conneaut Lake. Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience. The spacious yard provides ample room for a garden and outdoor entertaining. And the back deck offers a great spot to sit and relax. The home features a cozy eat-in kitchen that opens to the comfortable living room. There is also a bonus room that can be used for an office, den or additional storage. This would make a lovely home or investment property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,383 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,383
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$830
• − Management: −$830
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$3,030
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$727
• After-tax cash flow: $-271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conneaut Lake

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #5012

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,688

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.22%
• Current HPI: 334.4533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $115,000 GEBOR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $115,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,383 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.