1259 Clay St

San Francisco, CA 94108

$995,000D-

9 bd · 9.0 ba · 5,483 sqft · Built 2023 · Condo · Pending · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax + insurance: −$1,658
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,208
• Net cashflow: $-2,491/mo
• Annual: $-29,896/yr
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.73%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $278,600

Investor read

• This is a 9-bed/9.0-bath condo listed at $995k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $634k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $575k (42.2% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $575k (42.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.3%/yr); 28 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$111k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,753/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?