1259 Clay St · San Francisco, CA 94108

$995,000

9 bd · 9.0 ba · 5,483 sqft · Condo public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2023 $181/sqft · 84% below area Est $969k · at est. $160/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Nob Hill, one of San Francisco's most prestigious and iconic neighborhoods. Ideally situated in the heart of the City, this impeccably designed condominium offers effortless access to renowned dining, boutique shopping, and celebrated landmarks. This thoughtfully appointed lower-level residence features two bedrooms and one-and-a-half bathrooms, complemented by a private patioperfect for indoor-outdoor livingand the convenience of in-unit laundry. European oak flooring flows throughout, complemented by radiant heat for a level of comfort rarely found in city residences. The chef's kitchen is beautifully outfitted with premium Fisher & Paykel appliances, designed to inspire both everyday living and elevated entertaining. Spa-like bathrooms showcase Italian tile and stone, paired with Madeli vanities and refined Graff plumbing fixtures. Designer lighting from Circa Lighting enhances the home's inviting ambiance, while Phillip Jeffries wallpaper adds texture and a tailored, design-forward finish throughout. The surrounding grounds, expertly curated by TripleBK Landscaping, offer a lush and tranquil setting that elevates the overall living experience. Ideally located in the heart of Nob Hill, the home also offers seamless connectivity via nearby cable cars, MUNI lines, and convenient access to downtown transit corridorsmaking city living both effortless and refined.

Key facts

• Private patio
• Radiant heat
• Spa like bathrooms

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• EUROPEAN OAK FLOORING
• RADIANT HEAT
• SPA LIKE BATHROOMS
• ITALIAN TILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/9.0-bath condo listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $637k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $578k (42.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $578k (42.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.3%/yr); 28 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,775/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$111k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($965k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $577,546 (42.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.65%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $968,888
• List price: $995,000
• Delta: 2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
453-463 Union St	0.63mi	10/7.0 (+1)	5,238 (-4%)	7mo	$2,760,000	$527	44
1750 Stockton St	0.66mi	10/— (+1)	6,178 (+13%)	12mo	$2,100,000	$340	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.29% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $177,697
• Equity at exit: $643,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $717,847
• Equity at exit: $1,183,782

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94108

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Rents YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,244 /mo · $14,925/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,213
• Net cashflow: $-2,474

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,907

Max offer price $637,065

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: cablelandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1401 chars)

   Welcome to Nob Hill, one of San Francisco's most prestigious and iconic neighborhoods. Ideally situated in the heart of the City, this impeccably designed condominium offers effortless access to renowned dining, boutique shopping, and celebrated landmarks. This thoughtfully appointed lower-level residence features two bedrooms and one-and-a-half bathrooms, complemented by a private patioperfect for indoor-outdoor livingand the convenience of in-unit laundry. European oak flooring flows throughout, complemented by radiant heat for a level of comfort rarely found in city residences. The chef's kitchen is beautifully outfitted with premium Fisher & Paykel appliances, designed to inspire both everyday living and elevated entertaining. Spa-like bathrooms showcase Italian tile and stone, paired with Madeli vanities and refined Graff plumbing fixtures. Designer lighting from Circa Lighting enhances the home's inviting ambiance, while Phillip Jeffries wallpaper adds texture and a tailored, design-forward finish throughout. The surrounding grounds, expertly curated by TripleBK Landscaping, offer a lush and tranquil setting that elevates the overall living experience. Ideally located in the heart of Nob Hill, the home also offers seamless connectivity via nearby cable cars, MUNI lines, and convenient access to downtown transit corridorsmaking city living both effortless and refined.

2. 2026-03-19
   listed $995,000 Active 1401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1401 chars)

   Welcome to Nob Hill, one of San Francisco's most prestigious and iconic neighborhoods. Ideally situated in the heart of the City, this impeccably designed condominium offers effortless access to renowned dining, boutique shopping, and celebrated landmarks. This thoughtfully appointed lower-level residence features two bedrooms and one-and-a-half bathrooms, complemented by a private patioperfect for indoor-outdoor livingand the convenience of in-unit laundry. European oak flooring flows throughout, complemented by radiant heat for a level of comfort rarely found in city residences. The chef's kitchen is beautifully outfitted with premium Fisher & Paykel appliances, designed to inspire both everyday living and elevated entertaining. Spa-like bathrooms showcase Italian tile and stone, paired with Madeli vanities and refined Graff plumbing fixtures. Designer lighting from Circa Lighting enhances the home's inviting ambiance, while Phillip Jeffries wallpaper adds texture and a tailored, design-forward finish throughout. The surrounding grounds, expertly curated by TripleBK Landscaping, offer a lush and tranquil setting that elevates the overall living experience. Ideally located in the heart of Nob Hill, the home also offers seamless connectivity via nearby cable cars, MUNI lines, and convenient access to downtown transit corridorsmaking city living both effortless and refined.

3. 2023-11-10
   price $995,000
4. 2023-09-04
   listed $1,095,000 Active
5. 2015-09-25
   soldstatus $3,250,000
6. 2006-02-07
   soldstatus $900,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$14,925
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,544
• − Management: −$5,544
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable loss: −$48,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,588
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,305
• Household income: $65,388
• Rent vs Own: 89.1% rent · 10.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 53% White 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 51% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Chinese 42% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.29%
• Current HPI: 172.8561
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.33%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $995,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $995,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-09-04 Listed $1,095,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2015-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $3,250,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $56,009 · +28.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.