440 Aurora Ave

Lowry, MN 56349

$129,995D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 996 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-703/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $36,399

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-703/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#411 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Minnewaska School District (rural): math 55% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #87 of 301 in MN (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Minnewaska Area Elementary (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #130 of 857 statewide, top 18%, 351 students, 38% FRL); Minnewaska Area Intermediate School (math 64% / reading 62%, grade B+, #17 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 292 students, 32% FRL); Minnewaska Secondary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #246 of 471 statewide, top 59%, 399 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Pope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pope County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.