230 W Orchard Rd

Roswell, NM 88230

$89,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · Built 1996 · Manufactured · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,106/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $189/mo
• Annual: $2,265/yr
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.22%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $25,060

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Dexter Consolidated Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #65 of 95 in NM (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — dirtied and debris
• Major: landscaping — bare lot, debris