230 W Orchard Rd · Roswell, NM 88230

$89,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,397 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 1996 Fair condition 10 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Room to grow at this unique property. 10 acres to roam or expand. The front porch was made for sitting and enjoying the peace and quiet. Inside you will find a large living room and fun loft area. Open kitchen and dining. Located in Dexter but a short highway commute to downtown Roswell. Country living that wont break the bank. Call today to view this fantastic property

Key facts

• Front porch
• 10 acres
• Large living room

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• FRONT PORCH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FUN LOFT AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SHORT HIGHWAY COMMUTE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Dexter Consolidated Schools (rural): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #65 of 95 in NM (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($619 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.22%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $23,379
• Equity at exit: $40,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $65,832
• Equity at exit: $63,307

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88230

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,500 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $89,500 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,500 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,500 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $99,500 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Room to grow at this unique property. 10 acres to roam or expand. The front porch was made for sitting and enjoying the peace and quiet. Inside you will find a large living room and fun loft area. Open kitchen and dining. Located in Dexter but a short highway commute to downtown Roswell. Country living that wont break the bank. Call today to view this fantastic property

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $112,500 Active 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Room to grow at this unique property. 10 acres to roam or expand. The front porch was made for sitting and enjoying the peace and quiet. Inside you will find a large living room and fun loft area. Open kitchen and dining. Located in Dexter but a short highway commute to downtown Roswell. Country living that wont break the bank. Call today to view this fantastic property

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $943
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$226
• After-tax cash flow: $2,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, with a focus on exterior cleaning and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — dirtied and debris
• Major landscaping — bare lot, debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint and update kitchen cabinets — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both landscaping and exterior cleaning — improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · dirtied and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · bare lot, debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint and update kitchen cabinets — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping and exterior cleaning — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dexter Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500750
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 23% —
• Median HH income: $42,941
• Composite: 20.47/100
• National rank: #13786
• State rank: #65 of 95 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 56,277
• Population (ZIP): 4,639

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 21% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Current HPI: 100.1481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $99,500 NMMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $112,500 NMMLS