111 Old National Pike

Centerville, PA 15417

$39,995A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,191/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $568/mo
• Annual: $6,812/yr
• Cap rate: 23.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.83%
• DSCR: 3.71
• 1% rule: 2.98%
• Cash to close: $11,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $666 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#864 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem-Center El Sch (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 435 students, 49% FRL); Bethlehem-Center Ms (math 3% / reading 29%, grade F, #467 of 512 statewide, top 91%, 242 students, 58% FRL); Bethlehem-Center Shs (math 90%, 302 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.