111 Old National Pike · Centerville, PA 15417

$39,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1910 8,712 sqft lot $26/sqft · 29% below area Est $56k · 29% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to invest or rehab and make it new again!

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story resale property
• Construction: Resale construction
• Exterior features: 0.2 acre lot

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#864 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem-Center El Sch (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,518 statewide, top 68%, 435 students, 49% FRL); Bethlehem-Center Ms (math 3% / reading 29%, grade F, #467 of 512 statewide, top 91%, 242 students, 58% FRL); Bethlehem-Center Shs (math 90%, 302 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $666 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,795 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.83%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,275
• List price: $39,995
• Delta: -28.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1250 2nd St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,560 (+2%)	6mo	$10,500	$7	67
1320 Water St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-10%)	8mo	$20,000	$15	61
85 Low Hill Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,509 (-1%)	16mo	$48,000	$32	60
263 Knob School Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,564 (+3%)	4mo	$120,000	$77	58
1117 2nd St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,662 (+9%)	8mo	$8,000	$5	52
1509 Water St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-13%)	17mo	$105,000	$79	46
729 Catherine Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,592 (+4%)	20mo	$57,000	$36	43
1317 Sheridan Ave	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,328 (-13%)	13mo	$146,058	$110	42
30 Main St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-6%)	24mo	$55,000	$38	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $32,035
• Equity at exit: $8,391

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $76,838
• Equity at exit: $7,776

Cash invested: $11,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15417

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,765/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $473

Max offer price $39,995

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $590	-5% $579	+0% $568	+5% $556	+10% $545
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $521	+0% $568	+5% $615	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $578	base $568	+0.5pp $557	+1.0pp $547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,999
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,995 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,995 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,995 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,995 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,995 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,995 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,995 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-05-05
   price $39,995 59-char remark
9. 2026-04-22
   listed $49,995 Active 59-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,765 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,765 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,240
• − Property taxes: −$1,765
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$1,163
• Taxable income: $6,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $5,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem-Center SD
• NCES district ID: 4203600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,354
• Composite: 24.81/100
• National rank: #7596
• State rank: #448 of 539 in PA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #9044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, PA
• City population: 1,605
• Population (ZIP): 7,709

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 190.8891
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $39,995 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $49,995 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,765 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.