159 Riparian Ln

Ranson, WV 25438

$319,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,215/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$507
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-470/mo
• Annual: $-5,641/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: T A Lowery Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #191 of 377 statewide, top 56%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Wildwood Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #70 of 109 statewide, top 65%, 425 students, 0% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 30% / reading 62%, grade D-, #9 of 110 statewide, top 7%, 1,444 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $240k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.