159 Riparian Ln · Ranson, WV 25438

$319,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · Townhouse public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2007 2,178 sqft lot Est $322k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Easy Access to Commuter Routes 9 and 340! Enjoy beautiful mountain views on your drive home. This lovely three bedroom townhome in Shenandoah Springs features an open main level with a large living room, kitchen with island/breakfast bar, and large morning/flex room with cozy gas fireplace. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, shower stall, soaking tub, and double vanity. The lower level is fully finished with a spacious rec/family room, fourth bedroom (studded out for added bedroom space potential), plus half bathroom. Fresh new carpet awaits. This low maintenance property is just off US-340 and WV-9 for easy commuter access and close to all the conveniences of town. As a bonus, th

Key facts

• $40 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $40 per month; Road responsibility handled by HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned parking spaces; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Broadband and cable internet available
• Home design: Interior townhouse / rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Good condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation with passive radon mitigation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Paved roads maintained by HOA; No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (all upper levels); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling systems; 200+ amp electrical service
• Interior features: Carpet; Family room adjacent to the kitchen; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Has one gas/propane fireplace; Full, partially finished basement with connecting stairway; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (30.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.8% in Ranson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $240k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,478 (30.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Riparian Ln	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,526 (+3%)	2mo	$329,900	$131	85
27 Baltic Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,460 (0%)	15mo	$315,000	$128	82
29 Baltic Ln	0.07mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,652 (+8%)	0mo	$333,000	$126	77
155 Riparian Ln	0.01mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,510 (+2%)	18mo	$315,000	$125	76
23 Riparian Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,392 (-3%)	12mo	$319,900	$134	72
7 Riparian Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,510 (+2%)	22mo	$350,000	$139	65
1205 Mare St	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,342 (-5%)	0mo	$314,900	$134	59
1327 Mare St	0.74mi	3/3.0	2,322 (-6%)	0mo	$327,000	$141	56
1212 Steed St	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,510 (+2%)	14mo	$320,000	$127	51
1226 Steed St	0.72mi	2/3.5 (-1)	2,380 (-3%)	10mo	$275,000	$116	46
1233 Mare St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,347 (-5%)	8mo	$304,500	$130	46
1248 Steed St	0.74mi	3/3.5	2,124 (-14%)	12mo	$325,000	$153	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $143,838
• Equity at exit: $287,380

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $447,210
• Equity at exit: $619,747

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25438

• Home prices YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,215 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$374 /mo · $4,488/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,810

Max offer price $235,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-290	-5% $-380	+0% $-470	+5% $-560	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-645	-5% $-558	+0% $-470	+5% $-383	+10% $-295
Rate	-1.0pp $-309	-0.5pp $-389	base $-470	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Short Branch Dr Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,200	$1.13	5d	1	0.15mi
271 Swan Field Ave Charles Town, WV	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,100	$1.18	5d	1	0.40mi
351 Beauregard Blvd Charles Town, WV	3.0	3.0	2304	$1,900	$0.82	6d	1	0.63mi
1247 Mare St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1985	$2,080	$1.05	25d	1	0.74mi
1130 Stallion St Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,900	$1.15	6d	1	0.79mi
300 Presidents Pointe Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	19d	1	0.91mi
405 17th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,150	$1.25	6d	1	1.02mi
452 18th Ave Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1726	$1,895	$1.10	0d	1	1.03mi
1344 Red Clover Ln Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1723	$2,099	$1.22	14d	1	1.09mi
112 Cecily Way Unit 112 Ranson, WV	3.0	4.0	1905	$2,100	$1.10	6d	1	1.25mi
51 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	1998	$2,000	$1.00	14d	1	1.29mi
37 Cecily Way Ranson, WV	3.0	2.5	2540	$2,100	$0.83	25d	1	1.30mi
214 Gumspring Dr Charles Town, WV	4.0	2.5	2148	$2,500	$1.16	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $319,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $325,000 Active
17. 2026-04-24
    historical $325,000
18. 2007-07-20
    soldstatus $240,130
19. 2007-02-26
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,488 · $374/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,488 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,488
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$11,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,733
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ranson, WV
• County: Jefferson County · 28,403 people
• City population: 7,330
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 7,330
• Household income: $81,875
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.87%
• Current HPI: 352.707
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $325,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $240,130 Public Records
• 2007-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,488 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.