12822 Encantadora #35

San Diego, CA 92129

$431,033D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,909/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,260
• Tax + insurance: −$718
• HOA: −$493
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $-383/mo
• Annual: $-4,601/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $120,689

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $431k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $376k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $376k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Design 39 Campus (1,226 students, 6% FRL); Black Mountain Middle (1,129 students, 19% FRL); Mt. Carmel High (1,865 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?